Analysts predict housing bottom
A handful of economists and analysts predict the slump will bottom out, and home prices will level off by next summer - advice worth listening to.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Alan Greenspan famously declared the worst was over back in November of 2006. And the National Association of Realtors' erstwhile chief economist David Lereah called the bottom a few times, starting in May 2006.
Plenty of other economists and real estate analysts have attempted to do the same - and of course they've all been wrong.
But a consensus seemed to emerge among experts at a housing forum held by Standard & Poor's and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday in New York. Readers will be forgiven for taking this pronouncement with a large grain of salt.
Several panelists, including Economy.com's chief economist Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) economist Charlie Himmelberg, S&P managing director David Blitzer and S&P senior economist Beth Ann Bovino all agreed that home prices would stabilize sometime during the summer of 2009.
"The bottom of the housing market is coming into view," said Zandi, whose recent book "Financial Shock," examines how the subprime mortgage crisis occurred. "House prices, based on the S&P Case-Shiller index, are down 20% peak-to-trough and I expect them to fall another 5% to 10%."
"The key is housing affordability," Zandi said. "The [price] decline is beginning to restore affordability, which is now near its long-term average. In some places, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Orange County, affordability has been restored and those markets have stabilized."
More declines ahead
One piece of good news noted was home sales volume. The number of homes sold each month has already leveled off nationally, staying within a narrow range nearly every month this year at an annualized rate of about 5.5 million units a year.
Bovino said her forecast for home price decline is slightly more bearish than Zandi's, mostly based on S&P's belief that the country is now in a recession. With the economy struggling, job losses rising and a tough lending environment, she expects prices to fall another 10%.
"We think there will be an overshoot [with prices going beyond their logical bottom]," she said, in part because so many buyers are afraid to get into the market. "Nobody wants to catch a falling knife," she said.
And after prices do bottom out, Himmelberg expects them to remain fairly flat for a year or so.
Everyone on the panel agreed that the government takeover of Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) should help the housing market.
"We expect Fannie and Freddie to be more aggressive [in buying loans] over the next few months," said Zandi. "We are at a low point in credit availability right now."
The panelists were careful to couch their optimism with caveats. Zandi, for example, points out that there is a lot of uncertainty about the fate of Fannie and Freddie, in the wake of their government takeover.
There is some speculation that the companies will be downsized by a new administration after the presidential election in November.
"Neither candidate," said S&P managing director David Blitzer, "has decided what they want to say about that
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Monday, September 15, 2008
Tax Deferred Exchanges.
What is a tax-deferred exchange?
In a typical transaction, the property owner is taxed on any gain realized from the sale. However, through a Section 1031 Exchange, the tax on the gain is deferred until some future date.
Section 1031 of the Internal Revenue Code provides that no gain or loss shall be recognized on the exchange of property held for productive use in a trade or business, or for investment. A tax-deferred exchange is a method by which a property owner trades one or more relinquished properties for one or more replacement properties of "like-kind", while deferring the payment of federal income taxes and some state taxes on the transaction.
The theory behind Section 1031 is that when a property owner has reinvested the sale proceeds into another property, the economic gain has not been realized in a way that generates funds to pay any tax. In other words, the taxpayer's investment is still the same, only the form has changed (e.g. vacant land exchanged for apartment building). Therefore, it would be unfair to force the taxpayer to pay tax on a "paper" gain.
The like-kind exchange under Section 1031 is tax-deferred, not tax-free. When the replacement property is ultimately sold (not as part of another exchange), the original deferred gain, plus any additional gain realized since the purchase of the replacement property, is subject to tax.
Q - What are the benefits of exchanging v. selling?
A Section 1031 exchange is one of the few techniques available to postpone or potentially eliminate taxes due on the sale of qualifying properties.
By deferring the tax, you have more money available to invest in another property. In effect, you receive an interest free loan from the federal government, in the amount you would have paid in taxes.
Any gain from depreciation recapture is postponed.
You can acquire and dispose of properties to reallocate your investment portfolio without paying tax on any gain.
In a typical transaction, the property owner is taxed on any gain realized from the sale. However, through a Section 1031 Exchange, the tax on the gain is deferred until some future date.
Section 1031 of the Internal Revenue Code provides that no gain or loss shall be recognized on the exchange of property held for productive use in a trade or business, or for investment. A tax-deferred exchange is a method by which a property owner trades one or more relinquished properties for one or more replacement properties of "like-kind", while deferring the payment of federal income taxes and some state taxes on the transaction.
The theory behind Section 1031 is that when a property owner has reinvested the sale proceeds into another property, the economic gain has not been realized in a way that generates funds to pay any tax. In other words, the taxpayer's investment is still the same, only the form has changed (e.g. vacant land exchanged for apartment building). Therefore, it would be unfair to force the taxpayer to pay tax on a "paper" gain.
The like-kind exchange under Section 1031 is tax-deferred, not tax-free. When the replacement property is ultimately sold (not as part of another exchange), the original deferred gain, plus any additional gain realized since the purchase of the replacement property, is subject to tax.
Q - What are the benefits of exchanging v. selling?
A Section 1031 exchange is one of the few techniques available to postpone or potentially eliminate taxes due on the sale of qualifying properties.
By deferring the tax, you have more money available to invest in another property. In effect, you receive an interest free loan from the federal government, in the amount you would have paid in taxes.
Any gain from depreciation recapture is postponed.
You can acquire and dispose of properties to reallocate your investment portfolio without paying tax on any gain.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rescue
The U.S. government said Sunday it will take control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and oust their chief executives.
Although immediate cash won't be provided, the Treasury will acquire $1 billion of preferred shares in each company and pledge up to $200 billion, according to a report Monday in the Wall Street Journal.
In return the companies -- which control more than half the nation's mortgages -- will be under a conservatorship and management control will be in the hands of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
The government said that the cost to taxpayers -- which could equate to billions in losses from home loans -- would be less than the price of doing nothing.
Combined, the companies have lost around $14 billion over the past year. Both Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) purchase home loans from banks and repackage them as mortgage-backed securities that they either hold or sell to investors.
Both will modestly increase their mortgage-backed securities portfolios through the end of 2009. In 2010, their portfolios will begin to be gradually reduced at the rate of 10 percent per year, largely though national run off, eventually stabilizing at a lower, less risky size.
Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd and Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron will be replaced, but will stay on through the transition. Herbert Allison, former CEO of TIAA-CREF, has been named new CEO of Fannie. David Moffett, former vice chairman and chief financial officer at U.S. Bancorp will take Freddie’s helm. Boards for both institutions are also being replaced.
Two temporary programs, expiring in December 2009, were also announced:
The Treasury has established a new secured lending credit facility available to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks, serving as an ultimate liquidity backstop.
To further support the availability of mortgage financing for millions of Americans, later this month, the Treasury will initiate a temporary program to purchase Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s mortgage-backed securities to aid mortgage affordability.
Although immediate cash won't be provided, the Treasury will acquire $1 billion of preferred shares in each company and pledge up to $200 billion, according to a report Monday in the Wall Street Journal.
In return the companies -- which control more than half the nation's mortgages -- will be under a conservatorship and management control will be in the hands of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
The government said that the cost to taxpayers -- which could equate to billions in losses from home loans -- would be less than the price of doing nothing.
Combined, the companies have lost around $14 billion over the past year. Both Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) purchase home loans from banks and repackage them as mortgage-backed securities that they either hold or sell to investors.
Both will modestly increase their mortgage-backed securities portfolios through the end of 2009. In 2010, their portfolios will begin to be gradually reduced at the rate of 10 percent per year, largely though national run off, eventually stabilizing at a lower, less risky size.
Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd and Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron will be replaced, but will stay on through the transition. Herbert Allison, former CEO of TIAA-CREF, has been named new CEO of Fannie. David Moffett, former vice chairman and chief financial officer at U.S. Bancorp will take Freddie’s helm. Boards for both institutions are also being replaced.
Two temporary programs, expiring in December 2009, were also announced:
The Treasury has established a new secured lending credit facility available to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks, serving as an ultimate liquidity backstop.
To further support the availability of mortgage financing for millions of Americans, later this month, the Treasury will initiate a temporary program to purchase Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s mortgage-backed securities to aid mortgage affordability.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
U.S. Government Near Deal on Fannie, Freddie
The Bush administration is working weekend bailout of Fannie mae and Freddie mac, two of the biggest players int he mortgage Market.
The WSJ wrote:
WASHINGTON -- The Treasury Department is putting the finishing touches to a plan designed to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that would essentially result in a government takeover of the mortgage giants.
The plan is expected to involve putting the two companies into the conservatorship of their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said several people familiar with the matter. That would mean the government would take the reins of the companies, at least temporarily.
It is also expected to involve the government injecting capital into Fannie and Freddie. That could happen gradually on a quarter-by-quarter basis, rather than in a single move, one person familiar with the matter said.
In addition, Treasury's plan includes a top-level management shakeup at both companies, according to people familiar with the plans. Daniel H. Mudd, chief executive of Fannie Mae, and Richard Syron, his counterpart at Freddie Mac, are expected to step down from their posts eventually.
Any move by Treasury would represent perhaps the most significant intervention by the government in the financial industry since the housing bust touched off turmoil in the credit markets a little more than a year ago. From the $168 billion economic-stimulus package in February through the bailout of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos., the Bush administration and the Federal Reserve have taken an increasingly aggressive stance in responding to what has become one of the worst financial crises in decades.
Fannie and Freddie are vital cogs in the U.S. housing market. Their troubles have threatened to worsen the bursting of the housing bubble, which has led to a surge in foreclosures. (See related article.) A Treasury intervention could help Main Street borrowers by keeping interest rates on mortgages lower than they would be in the event of continued instability.
The Treasury's emergency powers to backstop Fannie and Freddie, which it won as the result of legislation passed by Congress in July, last until the end of 2009. A decision about their future role could be handed off to the next administration and the next Congress.The woes of Fannie and Freddie mark a remarkable comedown for two of Washington's most powerful and feared institutions, known for their financial clout and no-holds-barred lobbying prowess. Fannie and Freddie shares, which were up during the regular session Friday, dropped 25% and nearly 20% respectively in the after-hours session.
The WSJ wrote:
WASHINGTON -- The Treasury Department is putting the finishing touches to a plan designed to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that would essentially result in a government takeover of the mortgage giants.
The plan is expected to involve putting the two companies into the conservatorship of their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said several people familiar with the matter. That would mean the government would take the reins of the companies, at least temporarily.
It is also expected to involve the government injecting capital into Fannie and Freddie. That could happen gradually on a quarter-by-quarter basis, rather than in a single move, one person familiar with the matter said.
In addition, Treasury's plan includes a top-level management shakeup at both companies, according to people familiar with the plans. Daniel H. Mudd, chief executive of Fannie Mae, and Richard Syron, his counterpart at Freddie Mac, are expected to step down from their posts eventually.
Any move by Treasury would represent perhaps the most significant intervention by the government in the financial industry since the housing bust touched off turmoil in the credit markets a little more than a year ago. From the $168 billion economic-stimulus package in February through the bailout of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos., the Bush administration and the Federal Reserve have taken an increasingly aggressive stance in responding to what has become one of the worst financial crises in decades.
Fannie and Freddie are vital cogs in the U.S. housing market. Their troubles have threatened to worsen the bursting of the housing bubble, which has led to a surge in foreclosures. (See related article.) A Treasury intervention could help Main Street borrowers by keeping interest rates on mortgages lower than they would be in the event of continued instability.
The Treasury's emergency powers to backstop Fannie and Freddie, which it won as the result of legislation passed by Congress in July, last until the end of 2009. A decision about their future role could be handed off to the next administration and the next Congress.The woes of Fannie and Freddie mark a remarkable comedown for two of Washington's most powerful and feared institutions, known for their financial clout and no-holds-barred lobbying prowess. Fannie and Freddie shares, which were up during the regular session Friday, dropped 25% and nearly 20% respectively in the after-hours session.
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